Federal Reserve and the Monetary Environment There are few institutions that receive as much scrutiny when economic futures turn South than the US Federal Reserve. The institution …show more content…
The Taylor Principle, or Taylor Rule, is a principle championed by Dr. John B. Taylor. The Taylor Principle would be used to help central banks determine what changes in the nominal interest rate must be made in response to changing economic factors. In simple terms it states, for a one percent increase in inflation there should be an increase in the nominal interest rate by more than one percent. It also provides guidance for specific instances and a means to define the real short term interest …show more content…
The federal funds rate prior to 2002 tracked relatively close to the Taylor implied target rate. However, in 2002 the federal funds rate diverged quite sharply and remained diverged until 2006 when the two rates converged once again. This shouldn’t be surprising considering the intention of the Fed in 2002. As previously stated, there was an attempt to jumpstart the economy by lowering the federal funds rate. Taylor, in a paper published in 2009, unsurprisingly argued that the divergence from his rule was a primary cause of the housing crash. Taylor is not alone as many others have touted the promise of the Taylor Rule.
The debate over the Taylor Rule wages on. Individuals who do not ascribe to the idea argue several points. The first of these is the fact that depending on which numbers you use to develop figures, you can come up with widely varied Taylor figures. Secondly, the equation itself that is used to develop the Taylor figures has various forms and there is no universal standard. This again adds to the issue of varied figures. Lastly, some would argue that the reliance on measuring the output gap to create figures will result in the same issue as the